* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* JULIETTE EP142007 10/01/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 40 36 31 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 31 29 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 20 20 19 16 17 14 10 19 21 22 23 33 38
SHEAR DIR 166 158 171 182 174 204 188 194 225 258 282 274 287
SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.1 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.8 20.9
POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 101 98 93 87 85 84 84 82 80 77 68
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.8 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 1 1
700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 48 45 38 37 28 22 17 15 11 10
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 23 13 19 -1 -11 -22 -11 5 38 53 41
200 MB DIV 11 10 14 12 12 -8 14 0 -25 -26 -23 -26 -23
LAND (KM) 413 388 373 374 370 330 315 306 303 283 259 259 185
LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.4 27.3
LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.6 115.7 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.0 116.0 116.1 116.2 116.3 117.1 116.8
STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. -25.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -19.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -36. -44. -51. -56. -61. -65. -68.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -13. -19. -30. -41. -49. -56. -59. -62. -66. -69.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 10/01/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 1.6 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%)