* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 10/02/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 39 44 48 49 45 41 40 38 31
V (KT) LAND 30 32 28 32 34 38 42 36 30 28 27 28 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 27 30 30 32 34 32 28 27 27 27 29
SHEAR (KTS) 37 30 29 22 20 9 12 16 16 11 23 41 81
SHEAR DIR 215 208 196 194 199 273 262 296 264 290 238 215 211
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 26.7 24.6 22.2 19.7 17.3
POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 154 154 147 140 136 120 102 89 81 75
ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 138 139 138 129 121 115 102 89 80 74 70
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -55.3 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 6 4 6 3 7 2 6 0 0
700-500 MB RH 61 60 63 59 54 45 47 46 43 43 39 49 67
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 112 96 99 89 67 15 7 -34 -77 -102 -47 23 71
200 MB DIV 22 27 16 -5 -29 12 -7 -13 -23 1 36 67 43
LAND (KM) 139 21 -44 9 79 136 79 -22 -155 -338 -622 -976 -999
LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.7 27.3 28.5 29.7 30.6 31.8 33.2 35.4 38.5 42.0
LONG(DEG W) 79.0 80.1 81.1 82.3 83.4 85.7 87.5 88.9 90.2 91.5 93.2 94.8 95.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 9 11 15 17 17
HEAT CONTENT 69 66 9999 14 25 25 20 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 19. 19.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 19. 16. 12. 11. 10. 5.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 9. 14. 18. 19. 15. 11. 10. 8. 1.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/02/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)