* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * JULIETTE EP142007 10/02/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 20 22 20 16 14 13 16 26 25 33 30 40 N/A SHEAR DIR 165 174 183 182 177 204 196 228 235 275 272 290 N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.0 23.4 23.3 23.1 22.7 22.4 21.8 21.2 20.6 19.7 21.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 101 93 91 89 85 82 77 71 65 59 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -54.0 -54.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 1 2 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 50 48 43 40 34 29 22 16 16 13 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 25 18 26 16 -10 -9 -11 11 50 66 52 N/A 200 MB DIV 8 6 10 12 11 -4 0 -24 -21 -15 -39 -42 N/A LAND (KM) 393 376 364 356 348 312 277 222 154 141 101 29 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.9 26.6 27.5 28.7 28.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.7 115.8 115.9 116.0 116.1 116.1 116.1 116.0 115.8 116.4 115.8 114.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 4 4 5 5 4 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -11. -16. -22. -24. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -22. -33. -43. -52. -59. -66. -72. -75. -73. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -17. -22. -34. -45. -56. -63. -67. -71. -74. -71. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP142007 JULIETTE 10/02/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 1.8 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)