* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/02/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 39 39 34 32 32 33 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 36 32 28 27 27 27 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 23 24 24 26 26 27 27 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 28 25 21 13 7 15 15 19 24 20 8 13 21 SHEAR DIR 197 183 206 244 243 245 297 286 324 310 327 263 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.9 26.0 24.7 23.6 22.2 20.7 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 154 151 142 135 113 102 94 87 82 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 138 134 123 115 96 86 81 77 73 72 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 6 4 7 4 9 4 8 2 6 0 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 54 54 50 48 49 47 47 50 51 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 109 98 62 38 23 -39 -67 -121 -136 -164 -139 -69 200 MB DIV 22 -4 -9 -5 0 5 -16 -9 -19 10 12 45 69 LAND (KM) 136 167 163 195 211 107 -45 -244 -412 -570 -758 -943 -832 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.9 27.8 29.5 31.1 32.9 34.4 35.8 37.5 39.7 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.2 83.7 84.5 85.3 86.8 87.9 88.0 87.7 87.3 87.3 86.5 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 70 55 42 30 25 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 15. 10. 8. 8. 10. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 14. 9. 7. 7. 8. 6. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/02/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%)