* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/02/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 52 51 47 43 41 37 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 49 39 31 28 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 39 44 37 30 28 27 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 20 15 7 3 9 16 12 25 17 20 19 23 28 SHEAR DIR 178 182 210 197 215 286 297 300 312 308 268 274 275 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.6 25.4 23.5 22.1 20.4 19.8 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 154 151 142 131 108 94 87 81 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 140 137 134 124 112 93 82 77 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -55.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 6 7 5 8 6 9 5 7 2 1 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 55 52 54 53 51 51 51 55 55 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 14 13 12 11 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 97 63 38 31 -11 -36 -95 -76 -170 -117 -120 -63 200 MB DIV 9 10 -1 -3 -3 1 6 -11 14 3 20 24 7 LAND (KM) 174 276 286 321 251 107 -90 -291 -484 -662 -890 -992 -835 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.8 27.7 29.4 31.2 33.0 34.9 36.6 38.7 40.6 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.6 85.1 85.9 86.6 88.1 89.3 89.5 89.4 89.0 88.5 86.8 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 108 65 53 64 44 19 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 20. 23. 22. 18. 14. 12. 9. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 21. 17. 13. 11. 7. 3. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/02/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%)