* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/03/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 54 58 59 58 59 58 53 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 51 54 58 46 33 29 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 58 49 34 29 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 20 5 6 11 10 5 5 3 11 15 17 22 40 SHEAR DIR 173 169 126 150 196 282 235 299 196 178 208 184 183 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.0 25.4 22.1 19.8 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 156 151 146 143 137 109 89 81 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 138 138 137 132 126 123 118 95 80 75 70 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 9 6 9 6 9 2 0 700-500 MB RH 53 47 46 45 44 46 41 40 38 45 48 53 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 13 9 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 76 65 64 52 13 -13 -48 -47 -60 -17 11 64 200 MB DIV 17 13 -9 -19 -3 10 -12 -2 17 19 55 52 89 LAND (KM) 218 296 353 407 379 258 136 78 -59 -285 -588 -931 -999 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.3 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.8 27.9 28.9 30.3 32.2 34.8 37.9 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.4 87.0 87.7 88.3 89.7 91.1 92.3 93.7 95.0 96.0 96.4 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 12 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 92 58 29 68 107 40 30 27 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 29. 30. 28. 30. 29. 27. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 24. 28. 29. 28. 29. 28. 23. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/03/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)