* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 10/03/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 31 35 37 38 39 41 40 39 33
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 31 35 30 28 27 27 27 29 29
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 29 29
SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 14 16 10 14 19 13 10 2 12 24 29
SHEAR DIR 162 188 206 277 288 281 341 315 7 225 174 218 235
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.9 26.5 24.9 23.0 20.9 18.8 17.5
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 153 150 143 134 117 103 92 83 76 73
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 136 134 131 123 114 99 88 81 75 70 67
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 9 6 9 5 8 2 3 0
700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 46 50 48 48 46 46 46 52 54 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 53 24 6 -9 -63 -84 -129 -113 -57 -66 -86
200 MB DIV 19 -3 -4 -3 2 2 -9 -1 -5 26 22 51 4
LAND (KM) 351 408 391 298 205 19 -11 -170 -310 -517 -790 -999 -999
LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.6 27.3 29.0 30.5 31.9 33.0 34.8 37.3 39.9 41.5
LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.6 87.9 88.4 88.8 89.5 90.1 90.5 91.3 91.9 92.2 91.2 89.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 9 8 7 7 8 11 13 12 10
HEAT CONTENT 34 63 107 102 60 37 20 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 15. 12.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 15. 14. 8.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/03/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)