* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/03/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 39 39 39 41 43 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 39 39 39 41 43 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 28 28 26 24 22 22 23 SHEAR (KTS) 7 5 5 7 14 20 26 33 30 22 21 20 13 SHEAR DIR 211 178 217 236 241 236 260 254 269 258 252 226 225 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 147 148 148 145 141 141 142 144 145 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 152 153 153 151 146 141 138 137 138 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 68 71 70 63 64 57 51 51 55 58 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 11 1 -10 -9 -11 -6 -6 -10 -20 -14 -15 200 MB DIV 29 1 3 11 15 20 -16 -10 0 16 30 49 48 LAND (KM) 1245 1157 1055 986 935 866 842 875 858 807 830 865 846 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.5 12.4 13.4 14.4 15.6 17.0 18.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.1 43.5 44.8 46.0 48.2 50.4 52.3 54.0 55.4 56.7 57.5 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 36 40 44 34 37 53 60 59 63 63 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 19. 20. 23. 25. 29. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 19. 19. 19. 21. 23. 27. 29. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/03/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%)