* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/03/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 58 66 73 77 79 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 49 58 66 73 77 79 79 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 28 34 41 49 57 66 74 82 SHEAR (KTS) 11 4 7 6 5 7 10 12 9 10 2 9 3 SHEAR DIR 346 355 282 315 5 257 307 256 331 235 316 208 123 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 150 151 151 155 156 156 153 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 129 128 129 133 135 139 141 141 137 134 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 11 9 11 9 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 76 73 69 65 61 60 61 58 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 5 -4 -6 36 18 41 26 51 35 49 49 200 MB DIV 46 52 42 7 12 22 12 10 2 20 -3 18 0 LAND (KM) 470 488 492 456 402 269 100 73 141 198 226 236 259 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 74.6 75.1 75.7 76.2 77.6 79.5 81.4 83.5 85.5 87.5 89.2 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 57 56 57 66 75 77 107 93 59 43 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 20. 29. 38. 45. 52. 56. 59. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 38. 46. 53. 57. 59. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/03/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%)