* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 10/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 46 45 41 37 35 33 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 46 45 41 37 35 33 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 33 33 32 30 27 25 24 23 SHEAR (KTS) 26 32 34 30 29 36 39 44 49 44 44 41 30 SHEAR DIR 239 239 247 248 240 258 251 253 239 240 235 246 258 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.2 25.4 24.5 23.9 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 139 141 141 141 138 133 121 111 102 95 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 122 124 125 127 129 129 116 103 91 83 80 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -56.6 -57.2 -57.0 -56.8 -56.7 -57.2 -57.6 -58.0 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 55 57 59 57 52 51 51 40 39 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 2 -13 -7 -19 -17 -38 -36 0 4 -18 -25 200 MB DIV 48 34 33 48 61 49 54 -16 14 11 10 6 -32 LAND (KM) 1886 1908 1931 1960 1965 2063 2382 2355 1802 1379 1195 1113 1149 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.9 23.5 25.1 26.3 26.6 27.2 28.3 30.0 31.2 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.2 47.3 47.4 47.5 47.6 47.1 44.2 39.6 33.8 28.8 25.8 24.2 24.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 7 10 18 23 24 19 12 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 33 31 31 31 22 18 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -29. -31. -33. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 21. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 16. 12. 8. 7. 4. 3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 15. 11. 7. 5. 3. 0. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 10/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 MELISSA 10/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY