* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 10/03/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 35 36 39 40 39 39 34
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 29 30
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 25 27 26 26 27 27 27 29 30
SHEAR (KTS) 5 10 17 12 11 19 12 17 1 10 23 23 33
SHEAR DIR 226 240 278 300 304 306 348 317 221 226 230 224 225
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.7 26.6 25.0 22.7 20.5 17.9 15.4
POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 151 148 144 138 131 118 105 91 83 76 71
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 131 128 124 116 109 100 90 81 76 70 67
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 9 7 9 7 9 6 7 0 0
700-500 MB RH 48 48 51 52 47 46 46 43 43 47 57 59 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 7 5 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 70 53 26 16 6 -42 -65 -101 -84 -83 -24 -13 4
200 MB DIV 13 7 -7 0 10 -15 -5 9 12 33 55 58 59
LAND (KM) 421 334 246 154 62 -4 -45 -163 -324 -555 -864 -999 -999
LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.2 27.9 28.6 29.8 30.8 31.6 32.7 34.8 37.8 41.2 43.9
LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.5 88.0 88.5 89.0 89.6 90.2 91.1 92.3 93.1 93.0 91.6 89.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 9 13 16 17 15
HEAT CONTENT 87 106 90 45 30 20 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 19. 19. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 14. 15. 14. 14. 9.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/03/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/03/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY