* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 39 42 44 45 46 44 43 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 39 42 44 45 46 44 43 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 37 38 37 35 33 31 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 10 11 19 30 22 27 24 29 24 25 14 SHEAR DIR 199 216 216 212 238 250 275 290 284 284 287 282 314 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 142 142 139 137 138 139 142 142 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 143 144 145 144 138 134 133 132 133 132 133 134 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 69 72 63 65 64 53 56 59 60 64 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 0 -5 -11 -3 -9 -12 -20 -45 -44 -44 -21 200 MB DIV 28 26 22 25 34 27 14 3 47 5 54 53 75 LAND (KM) 1302 1213 1136 1082 1045 983 987 1054 1008 992 1023 951 995 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.7 12.7 13.8 15.0 16.2 17.4 18.8 20.4 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 40.8 42.1 43.3 44.6 45.8 48.1 50.3 52.1 53.5 54.8 56.0 56.9 57.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 24 30 29 33 37 51 49 56 60 55 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 21. 21. 21. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 19. 18. 18. 21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 44% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY