* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/03/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 31 38 43 48 54 58 62 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 31 38 43 48 54 58 62 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 23 25 28 31 36 42 49 55 SHEAR (KTS) 20 23 24 25 20 17 11 19 10 16 8 12 10 SHEAR DIR 309 303 313 314 321 321 336 277 243 259 213 246 188 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 145 147 149 150 153 157 158 155 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 123 126 131 133 137 142 143 139 137 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 74 69 59 59 56 57 52 52 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 7 6 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 -7 -4 20 42 49 48 76 68 56 48 47 200 MB DIV 52 41 12 11 33 4 10 0 4 9 1 8 7 LAND (KM) 693 653 614 560 507 356 171 15 175 200 276 260 280 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.5 73.9 74.5 75.0 76.6 78.5 80.6 82.8 84.9 87.0 88.9 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 38 45 53 58 43 72 69 88 54 48 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 24. 29. 34. 39. 44. 46. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 23. 28. 34. 38. 42. 45. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/03/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 10/03/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY