* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 37 39 41 46 45 41 36 29 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 10 14 12 14 8 2 15 36 54 53 51 SHEAR DIR 237 282 289 296 281 323 275 213 214 186 192 204 198 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.2 25.4 23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 147 144 141 137 125 108 92 84 78 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 127 124 120 116 106 93 81 76 71 67 65 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 9 6 10 6 9 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 49 46 45 45 41 39 43 57 59 63 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 7 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 22 16 7 -3 -53 -72 -94 -38 -10 -37 -6 26 200 MB DIV 16 1 -4 -1 -11 -11 -12 15 46 36 70 48 31 LAND (KM) 294 213 136 76 11 -57 -147 -277 -497 -774 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.4 27.9 28.5 29.0 30.0 31.1 32.3 34.2 36.7 39.8 42.6 44.6 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 88.4 89.0 89.6 90.1 91.1 92.2 93.4 94.4 94.5 94.0 93.9 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 11 14 15 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 106 70 37 32 38 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 21. 21. 17. 13. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 14. 16. 21. 20. 16. 11. 4. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY