* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 34 37 40 42 43 43 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 34 37 40 42 43 43 45 45 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 31 33 34 33 31 30 30 31 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 6 9 15 26 28 25 26 22 20 20 23 21 21 SHEAR DIR 203 244 261 259 251 268 257 275 272 276 245 252 256 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 147 147 145 140 139 140 142 144 144 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 151 151 151 148 139 135 135 136 138 135 133 134 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 79 78 72 68 66 63 59 56 58 58 58 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 0 -13 -17 -17 -13 -21 -30 -51 -55 -46 -25 200 MB DIV 27 25 13 9 6 0 20 9 0 12 7 46 4 LAND (KM) 1184 1092 1018 965 917 874 905 941 844 800 888 832 879 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.4 12.4 13.4 14.1 15.0 16.2 17.9 19.6 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.4 44.7 46.0 47.3 49.7 51.3 52.9 54.5 56.1 57.2 57.9 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 14 13 11 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 35 41 36 31 46 55 62 62 65 64 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -18. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 22. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 20. 20. 21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY