* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/04/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 44 48 56 62 68 72 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 44 48 56 62 68 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 33 39 47 56 66 SHEAR (KTS) 24 27 23 18 16 18 13 14 4 7 7 2 15 SHEAR DIR 309 325 340 343 331 343 319 332 277 316 235 188 197 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 148 150 151 152 155 156 158 154 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 127 128 131 134 136 139 141 141 137 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 81 76 76 73 68 60 59 60 57 56 52 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 8 12 10 11 10 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -15 -8 12 30 44 85 68 91 74 88 90 84 200 MB DIV 32 12 16 29 16 20 3 7 14 -4 20 12 33 LAND (KM) 625 600 579 542 497 337 160 77 132 176 256 215 221 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 73.5 74.0 74.6 75.2 76.9 78.9 81.1 83.1 85.0 86.8 88.4 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 52 55 56 57 63 58 76 96 95 66 48 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 24. 29. 36. 41. 47. 52. 54. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 24. 28. 36. 42. 48. 52. 52. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/04/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 10/04/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY