* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* MELISSA AL142007 10/04/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 39 43 47 48 48 48 48 46
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 39 43 47 48 48 48 48 46
V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 23 23 25 27 29 30 31 30 30 28
SHEAR (KTS) 25 18 25 21 18 18 23 30 30 39 39 50 45
SHEAR DIR 246 244 261 279 295 253 292 271 274 268 262 267 270
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 142 142 140 139 140 138 136 135 134 132 124
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 126 124 120 118 120 119 116 118 123 124 115
200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -56.1 -56.7 -56.6 -57.1 -57.5 -58.0 -58.1 -58.7
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7
700-500 MB RH 57 61 64 60 59 52 47 47 48 53 51 57 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 6 0 -2 2 -20 -11 -35 -36 -61 -53 -20
200 MB DIV 70 56 33 34 26 14 5 -1 35 9 -29 21 34
LAND (KM) 1637 1600 1567 1558 1552 1544 1460 1384 1378 1500 1777 1986 2001
LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.1 25.3 26.0 27.1 28.3 29.4 30.7
LONG(DEG W) 50.6 51.2 51.7 52.0 52.3 52.6 53.6 54.6 55.2 54.6 52.1 47.4 42.5
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 3 5 4 4 9 17 22 22
HEAT CONTENT 40 36 32 32 33 34 34 30 29 20 14 7 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -8. -11. -15. -20.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 18. 20. 22.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 21.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 10/04/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 MELISSA 10/04/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY