* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL902007 10/04/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 42 43 40 38 38 32
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 29 28 27 27 29 29 30 30
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 27 27 29 30 30 30
SHEAR (KTS) 5 10 7 15 6 10 12 19 34 58 43 15 28
SHEAR DIR 308 279 255 281 284 210 194 220 210 184 164 163 261
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 26.6 23.3 20.4 17.7 15.8 15.6 17.3
POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 144 145 142 120 95 83 75 69 68 74
ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 124 124 124 122 104 84 76 70 64 64 69
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -52.5 -53.9 -53.5 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 9 5 10 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 40 40 39 44 45 51 61 61 56 39
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 -4 -34 -42 -45 -37 -16 11 28 55 91 71
200 MB DIV -12 -14 -12 -4 -11 7 12 27 35 71 39 49 12
LAND (KM) 188 150 130 127 102 -32 -240 -498 -829 -999 -999 -999 -999
LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.9 31.3 33.4 36.6 40.4 43.2 43.6 41.6
LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.8 91.5 92.3 93.0 94.6 96.2 97.4 97.7 98.6 99.5 99.3 96.3
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 18 17 8 7 15
HEAT CONTENT 32 30 30 28 26 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 10. 9. 8. 6.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 18. 15. 14. 14. 11.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 17. 18. 15. 13. 13. 7.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/04/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/04/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY