* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 27 30 32 33 35 38 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 27 30 32 33 35 38 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 22 SHEAR (KTS) 15 25 34 31 27 21 21 26 23 21 19 21 18 SHEAR DIR 261 256 249 263 265 277 272 261 287 261 259 256 281 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 147 143 142 142 145 146 146 144 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 155 150 143 140 139 140 140 139 135 133 131 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 67 67 62 63 61 58 58 59 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -5 -11 -13 -17 -16 -25 -24 -41 -37 -40 -7 -8 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -8 -9 -4 16 -1 -3 0 -9 20 19 31 LAND (KM) 947 886 834 791 770 782 819 722 659 687 735 689 733 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.1 14.0 15.0 16.2 17.5 19.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.9 46.2 47.5 48.8 50.0 51.8 53.6 55.2 56.7 57.9 58.8 59.2 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 39 35 36 43 53 63 67 68 65 66 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -20. -24. -25. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 14. 18. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 13. 17. 18. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY