* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/04/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 42 51 59 67 70 74 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 35 37 46 54 62 65 69 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 27 33 39 47 53 52 SHEAR (KTS) 35 23 27 27 26 10 15 6 11 10 17 10 6 SHEAR DIR 333 338 326 333 346 350 16 101 67 111 85 100 65 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 153 155 155 159 164 163 160 158 156 151 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 136 140 141 147 153 150 146 141 140 135 130 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 11 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 76 71 70 70 68 66 67 67 66 68 68 69 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 18 43 41 46 92 87 112 101 126 119 126 124 200 MB DIV 0 44 28 15 21 32 11 23 16 36 25 39 35 LAND (KM) 614 542 473 393 298 80 6 134 196 211 203 94 -10 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.0 22.9 21.8 20.9 20.2 19.9 20.0 20.5 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 73.3 74.0 75.0 75.9 78.1 80.3 82.0 83.4 84.4 85.2 86.1 87.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 9 10 10 12 11 8 6 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 56 60 63 66 80 105 112 133 116 100 81 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 29. 35. 42. 45. 49. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 31. 39. 47. 50. 54. 53. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/04/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 10/04/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY