* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 39 37 37 36 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 12 6 9 17 18 30 45 36 9 26 26 SHEAR DIR 300 242 255 186 184 186 216 248 204 167 220 229 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.3 26.3 22.0 19.1 17.4 16.7 16.8 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 147 149 141 118 89 78 73 72 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 128 130 123 103 81 72 67 67 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -51.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 9 7 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 40 38 39 38 41 46 48 59 52 46 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -2 -28 -33 -22 -20 -22 24 34 42 52 49 87 200 MB DIV -14 -24 -5 -11 8 24 24 42 21 48 22 46 33 LAND (KM) 171 183 183 155 61 -154 -403 -711 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 29.9 31.4 34.0 37.3 40.0 41.6 42.5 43.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.0 92.7 93.7 94.7 96.8 98.8 100.2 101.7 102.0 100.5 96.2 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 15 11 13 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 31 29 31 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 6. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 13. 12. 13. 12. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 14. 12. 12. 11. 6. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED