* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 33 36 38 44 50 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 33 36 38 44 50 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 23 26 32 SHEAR (KTS) 22 27 30 27 22 17 18 23 15 17 7 6 9 SHEAR DIR 263 254 261 262 274 278 269 273 284 264 252 227 134 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 146 144 143 142 144 145 146 146 145 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 148 145 141 139 140 140 140 139 136 135 134 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 66 63 64 63 61 57 54 53 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -9 -12 -21 -20 -31 -28 -36 -52 -55 -6 8 18 200 MB DIV 1 9 -6 -10 1 13 12 8 16 12 24 18 51 LAND (KM) 868 827 786 783 792 797 793 663 625 670 634 628 761 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.2 16.4 18.0 19.7 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 46.2 47.4 48.6 49.6 50.6 52.4 54.2 55.9 57.4 58.7 59.7 59.9 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 42 36 34 40 49 56 63 71 70 65 59 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -19. -17. -15. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 21. 27. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 19. 25. 30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY