* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/04/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 28 34 39 47 55 59 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 28 34 32 36 44 48 51 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 22 21 27 32 42 48 54 59 SHEAR (KTS) 30 29 27 28 19 19 10 10 10 14 13 11 3 SHEAR DIR 338 339 345 350 353 348 8 351 39 40 84 56 32 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 153 155 155 159 158 159 160 153 146 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 134 137 140 141 145 144 145 146 139 133 132 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 67 66 63 65 62 63 62 59 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 39 36 47 72 93 93 84 88 88 91 89 60 200 MB DIV 31 24 16 12 13 14 7 21 12 10 16 29 33 LAND (KM) 586 505 432 358 268 103 -33 46 0 95 13 84 151 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.2 22.7 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.7 22.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 73.5 74.3 75.3 76.3 78.6 80.7 82.4 84.2 86.0 87.8 89.5 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 49 63 63 82 9999 104 106 85 46 32 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 20. 26. 32. 36. 39. 43. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 27. 35. 39. 42. 44. 43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/04/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 10/04/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED