* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 10/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 33 36 41 44 47 49 47 50 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 33 36 41 44 47 49 47 50 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 37 SHEAR (KTS) 22 18 17 14 19 24 27 25 34 35 35 47 50 SHEAR DIR 260 275 290 270 257 296 268 280 258 255 250 243 258 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.3 24.8 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 138 139 140 140 137 136 133 123 109 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 118 116 118 120 120 119 125 129 120 101 90 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.9 -56.6 -55.9 -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.9 -57.3 -58.1 -57.9 -58.2 -58.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 53 48 48 47 49 52 49 53 57 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 3 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 3 0 4 -9 -24 -26 -26 -24 17 35 -52 200 MB DIV 34 33 34 13 11 2 7 40 25 29 57 90 65 LAND (KM) 1554 1550 1548 1536 1525 1444 1381 1394 1629 1955 1907 1958 1976 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.4 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.8 25.1 26.0 27.5 29.4 31.8 34.9 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.2 52.4 52.6 52.7 53.6 54.5 55.0 53.3 49.0 42.1 35.8 31.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 1 3 4 4 7 16 27 31 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 34 34 35 35 31 29 22 9 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 24. 26. 28. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 8. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 22. 25. 26. 23. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 10/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 MELISSA 10/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY