* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 40 40 38 38 37 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 27 27 27 27 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 26 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 8 12 4 8 15 21 24 32 33 25 16 21 18 SHEAR DIR 236 261 255 188 177 178 233 231 201 180 193 237 214 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.2 26.2 22.0 19.3 17.5 16.4 16.2 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 149 150 140 116 88 79 74 71 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 129 130 131 122 102 80 73 68 66 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 9 6 10 3 2 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 38 39 37 36 41 47 49 56 53 49 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -23 -27 -17 -20 -20 6 26 42 71 80 80 121 200 MB DIV -23 -13 -11 -3 0 7 28 21 60 32 48 12 34 LAND (KM) 208 218 206 115 10 -190 -444 -711 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.7 29.9 31.5 34.0 37.4 40.5 42.5 43.5 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.5 93.3 94.4 95.4 97.4 99.3 100.2 100.4 99.9 98.6 95.3 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 15 16 13 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 34 32 30 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 7. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 15. 15. 13. 13. 12. 8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY