* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 42 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 31 33 38 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 17 18 20 22 SHEAR (KTS) 25 30 31 30 27 24 25 23 19 20 13 14 13 SHEAR DIR 252 264 259 262 271 287 264 280 261 271 242 255 269 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 144 142 142 142 144 145 144 145 143 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 145 141 140 139 140 139 136 135 133 133 135 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 66 62 65 62 64 62 58 59 60 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -11 -20 -21 -26 -37 -23 -45 -46 -34 -4 -15 -49 200 MB DIV 6 -4 -10 17 19 9 5 13 12 49 26 21 -9 LAND (KM) 834 789 758 762 766 793 746 675 717 820 838 928 1112 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.8 16.1 17.5 19.3 21.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 48.4 49.6 50.5 51.4 53.2 54.8 56.3 57.2 57.8 57.8 57.3 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 48 37 36 41 41 53 60 63 68 66 63 61 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -18. -21. -24. -24. -23. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 5% is 0.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY