* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/05/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 43 52 60 66 70 73 72 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 43 52 60 66 70 73 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 30 36 45 55 64 72 SHEAR (KTS) 34 28 27 17 12 13 6 4 2 3 8 5 7 SHEAR DIR 326 336 330 331 315 328 279 16 196 72 174 119 166 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 153 154 154 154 154 158 156 154 152 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 136 138 139 140 140 138 142 140 138 135 137 142 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 66 64 64 65 60 61 60 59 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 39 65 82 75 109 81 97 71 64 45 45 200 MB DIV 17 4 10 34 20 15 18 0 7 5 18 -1 0 LAND (KM) 562 488 429 353 273 141 100 121 204 249 265 278 309 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.5 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.8 74.8 76.0 77.1 79.7 81.8 83.6 85.6 87.4 89.1 90.7 92.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 51 62 68 81 86 114 92 55 47 48 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 30. 38. 44. 49. 53. 55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 23. 32. 40. 46. 50. 53. 52. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/05/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 10/05/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY