* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * MELISSA AL142007 10/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 34 38 40 43 47 47 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 34 38 40 43 47 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 21 22 22 23 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 27 26 23 26 25 31 36 47 61 71 65 SHEAR DIR 279 263 256 262 275 277 271 265 245 244 231 221 196 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 26.9 25.7 24.3 21.8 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 139 138 137 135 129 118 106 92 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 118 119 119 119 120 124 124 113 99 85 75 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.3 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -56.9 -57.2 -58.0 -58.0 -57.7 -55.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 59 54 50 44 48 45 48 51 53 56 69 65 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -4 -4 -17 -9 -16 -24 -53 -1 64 84 56 131 200 MB DIV 30 36 20 4 2 6 51 30 55 90 55 94 151 LAND (KM) 1497 1495 1493 1464 1435 1401 1453 1701 1843 1734 1650 1617 1381 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.8 25.3 26.4 28.1 30.5 33.6 38.1 43.3 48.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.8 52.9 53.0 53.4 53.7 54.4 54.6 52.9 48.5 42.0 36.7 33.0 29.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 4 8 17 27 31 30 30 29 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 36 36 35 30 24 19 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 29. 29. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 23. 27. 27. 25. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL142007 MELISSA 10/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142007 MELISSA 10/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY