* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 41 42 43 42 41 40 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 26 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 25 26 26 27 27 29 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 11 13 16 21 18 40 35 14 9 11 12 SHEAR DIR 295 161 176 188 186 197 195 192 189 191 225 227 267 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.9 25.2 22.0 19.5 17.7 14.7 11.6 11.4 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 142 136 107 88 80 77 71 65 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 127 128 124 117 94 79 74 72 68 63 59 60 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -53.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 7 6 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 38 37 37 38 43 47 57 55 50 50 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -29 -37 -45 -32 -15 -7 8 49 93 159 132 114 200 MB DIV -5 7 6 32 20 19 49 42 62 61 19 26 -13 LAND (KM) 174 128 42 -71 -184 -420 -651 -972 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.7 30.3 32.1 34.4 37.8 41.3 44.7 47.1 47.6 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.7 94.6 95.6 96.5 98.0 98.6 98.3 95.7 91.5 88.5 87.4 86.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 10 11 14 18 21 19 10 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 31 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 16. 17. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 11. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY