* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 31 35 38 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 31 35 38 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 21 19 18 18 19 20 21 23 24 SHEAR (KTS) 32 35 36 29 25 19 18 17 17 11 18 24 21 SHEAR DIR 259 257 262 275 289 283 303 275 289 273 269 265 300 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 139 140 142 143 142 143 146 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 137 136 135 134 133 132 133 137 132 127 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.3 -55.8 -56.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 65 63 62 63 64 61 61 60 59 50 47 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -23 -25 -31 -40 -46 -50 -44 -34 -23 -39 -52 -119 200 MB DIV 1 -3 13 8 15 -3 7 -4 22 25 27 -12 1 LAND (KM) 851 853 862 873 899 902 861 905 1002 1078 1285 1581 1837 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.7 15.9 17.2 18.7 20.6 22.5 24.2 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.5 50.4 51.3 52.2 53.7 55.0 55.8 56.2 55.7 54.2 51.8 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 11 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 37 44 53 56 62 60 60 52 51 32 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY