* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922007 10/05/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 40 48 56 65 72 74 75 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 29 28 27 39 46 48 49 45 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 25 33 40 48 55 60 SHEAR (KTS) 34 27 24 23 23 12 17 8 12 9 8 13 14 SHEAR DIR 351 2 349 347 360 3 11 347 15 297 315 277 309 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 161 164 163 158 156 158 156 156 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 148 149 151 148 142 141 142 138 138 135 136 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 65 68 68 68 65 66 63 64 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 74 95 85 88 102 86 101 92 90 81 47 14 200 MB DIV 17 29 13 -4 5 24 3 7 6 27 5 2 -13 LAND (KM) 273 193 123 81 20 -22 -44 -4 99 234 304 324 355 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.9 21.8 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.0 74.9 76.1 77.2 79.1 80.7 82.4 84.2 85.8 87.4 88.9 90.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 69 75 80 83 79 9999 9999 88 107 90 34 60 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 383 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 51. 53. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 28. 36. 45. 52. 54. 55. 51. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL922007 INVEST 10/05/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922007 INVEST 10/05/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY