* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 10/05/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 42 42 42 40 39 37 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 1 7 7 8 14 11 30 51 44 32 19 15 20 SHEAR DIR 274 183 228 188 185 192 194 184 185 198 214 257 281 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.5 26.4 23.5 20.9 18.9 17.4 16.0 15.7 18.2 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 140 130 118 95 84 78 74 70 68 74 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 120 112 101 84 76 72 69 66 64 68 73 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 10 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 37 36 38 39 41 53 56 52 51 40 31 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -38 -62 -43 -44 -11 -7 -12 40 75 91 100 126 200 MB DIV 3 17 29 12 13 51 37 59 32 17 -2 2 9 LAND (KM) 86 22 -58 -161 -266 -493 -752 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -834 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 29.5 30.0 30.7 31.4 33.3 35.8 39.0 41.9 43.6 43.7 42.6 41.3 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.3 95.0 95.8 96.5 97.5 97.8 96.9 94.9 91.8 89.5 87.7 84.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 14 17 15 11 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. 12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 17. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 8. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 10/05/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 10/05/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY