* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 10/05/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 30 33 33 34 34 32
V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 28 30 30 33 33 34 34 32
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 21 21 21 20 21 21 21 20
SHEAR (KTS) 29 31 25 22 19 21 20 22 15 19 23 30 27
SHEAR DIR 255 258 272 285 290 295 291 298 279 282 289 300 313
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 138 139 140 141 141 142 143 143 143
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 134 134 133 131 130 129 128 128 127 126 125
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 62 63 60 61 60 62 59 57 58 56 55 50 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -24 -29 -36 -45 -51 -48 -59 -50 -52 -69 -80 -113 -127
200 MB DIV 0 20 1 11 3 2 -8 -16 16 10 18 -19 -19
LAND (KM) 907 917 928 962 1006 968 982 1030 1089 1111 1172 1220 1266
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.7 17.0 18.1 19.3 20.7 21.8 22.8 23.8
LONG(DEG W) 49.0 49.9 50.7 51.5 52.3 53.6 54.5 55.1 55.4 55.4 55.1 55.0 55.0
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 7 5 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 31 31 41 50 51 53 58 59 55 52 57 60 47
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 8. 8. 9. 9. 7.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/05/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.1 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/05/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY