* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/06/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 33 39 44 48 50 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 28 30 33 39 44 48 50 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 22 25 28 33 36 SHEAR (KTS) 27 23 21 21 24 27 21 16 3 11 6 10 10 SHEAR DIR 250 263 284 283 288 312 290 305 322 333 298 298 277 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 136 137 139 140 141 142 145 146 142 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 132 131 131 131 131 131 131 133 132 130 127 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 64 65 61 61 61 60 55 55 58 55 51 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -31 -37 -47 -55 -55 -66 -63 0 -8 -32 -56 -43 200 MB DIV 28 15 7 -1 -10 -15 -14 45 54 32 16 35 3 LAND (KM) 941 955 968 996 1034 992 982 1010 1054 1130 1284 1499 1867 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.8 17.0 18.1 19.9 21.7 23.6 25.5 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 49.7 50.5 51.3 52.0 53.4 54.5 55.4 55.8 55.5 54.7 53.4 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 17 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 40 47 51 52 58 59 55 53 49 32 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 25. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY