* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 10/06/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 49 55 58 57 57 55 54 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 41 49 55 58 57 57 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 38 41 43 44 45 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 14 9 7 15 15 14 17 15 17 19 32 SHEAR DIR 319 299 326 353 318 333 312 336 275 305 274 312 283 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 153 152 151 151 151 149 148 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 138 138 137 134 130 128 129 130 127 126 122 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -54.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 66 62 62 60 58 49 48 44 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 9 9 11 12 10 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 48 36 37 38 37 28 35 13 -27 -54 -58 -65 -73 200 MB DIV 24 -6 -8 19 28 26 8 -9 -24 -18 -12 11 17 LAND (KM) 222 206 208 220 254 333 400 433 464 503 547 607 663 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.8 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.5 25.2 26.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 68.1 68.7 69.3 69.9 70.9 71.3 71.5 71.7 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 82 78 70 65 71 69 57 49 43 39 38 46 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 5. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 39. 40. 39. 38. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 35. 38. 37. 37. 35. 34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY