* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/06/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 32 37 37 37 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 32 37 37 37 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 SHEAR (KTS) 22 23 22 26 30 21 21 19 15 22 26 16 13 SHEAR DIR 259 282 283 286 293 300 292 313 303 287 293 293 287 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 136 136 137 138 141 145 143 137 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 129 128 127 128 130 136 132 124 119 116 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 64 61 59 61 61 55 56 56 56 50 45 45 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -44 -54 -54 -53 -62 -62 -48 -46 -84 -154 -149 -141 200 MB DIV 15 3 -10 -2 7 -11 -1 77 43 -18 -5 6 3 LAND (KM) 1044 1065 1094 1141 1130 1122 1177 1258 1396 1695 1983 2151 2175 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.5 18.7 20.4 22.6 24.9 26.8 28.2 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 49.5 50.3 51.0 51.6 52.2 53.2 53.7 53.9 53.1 50.9 48.7 45.9 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 10 13 14 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 28 37 45 46 49 57 57 49 46 31 25 12 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 2.7 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED