* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 10/06/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 32 40 48 56 59 63 64 63 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 32 40 48 56 59 63 64 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 31 36 41 46 50 51 50 SHEAR (KTS) 12 16 10 9 12 7 10 2 15 8 21 31 49 SHEAR DIR 324 354 357 326 339 53 332 244 301 291 299 271 273 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 152 152 152 153 151 150 147 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 140 140 138 133 131 131 133 130 130 127 120 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 67 65 66 62 61 56 53 48 48 47 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 51 53 40 43 24 1 -40 -53 -66 -60 -62 200 MB DIV 9 18 13 22 15 50 0 -18 4 4 34 37 25 LAND (KM) 202 192 218 250 289 349 342 337 351 380 419 425 528 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.4 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.8 25.8 27.1 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.4 70.2 71.0 71.8 72.9 73.4 74.1 74.9 75.8 76.0 75.8 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 8 7 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 74 67 74 74 69 53 53 61 63 60 58 48 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 6. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 35. 39. 44. 45. 45. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 39. 43. 44. 43. 38. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED