* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/06/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 28 31 35 39 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 28 31 35 39 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 24 27 30 33 35 SHEAR (KTS) 23 24 28 30 26 18 16 8 12 10 9 11 13 SHEAR DIR 280 283 283 292 302 285 291 295 310 345 333 293 302 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 138 139 141 141 142 145 146 142 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 130 131 131 131 130 130 133 134 130 127 125 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 62 60 62 62 62 58 58 58 54 52 48 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -53 -54 -53 -55 -53 -55 -43 -44 -66 -104 -95 -74 200 MB DIV -6 -14 -2 2 0 -16 5 6 29 23 -6 -15 13 LAND (KM) 1048 1063 1088 1046 1006 992 1018 1001 1054 1233 1493 1835 2134 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.8 21.5 23.5 25.4 26.7 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.2 52.0 52.8 53.6 54.8 55.7 56.3 56.2 55.2 53.4 50.3 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 7 7 8 9 12 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 37 46 49 48 55 56 59 57 52 51 33 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 35.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY