* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932007 10/06/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 44 49 54 57 58 58 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 44 49 54 57 58 58 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 35 39 42 45 45 SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 12 12 13 14 21 19 10 15 13 26 42 SHEAR DIR 337 319 306 322 326 289 333 267 312 254 277 257 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 152 149 148 149 149 149 143 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 139 138 136 131 126 125 126 127 129 125 119 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 64 65 62 60 51 51 47 49 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 21 9 6 0 -12 0 -28 -53 -62 -63 -88 200 MB DIV 17 22 15 28 34 17 11 -13 -14 -3 12 49 19 LAND (KM) 232 241 263 309 359 455 511 522 544 586 687 856 935 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.9 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.1 26.0 27.5 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.9 68.6 69.3 69.9 70.5 71.0 71.1 71.1 71.5 71.6 71.5 70.7 69.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 7 6 4 1 1 2 3 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 79 68 63 70 71 52 45 44 43 43 39 29 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 29. 34. 38. 39. 40. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 24. 29. 34. 37. 38. 39. 34. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY