* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/06/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 35 40 45 48 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 35 40 45 48 51 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 25 28 32 36 39 42 SHEAR (KTS) 20 27 30 26 21 15 9 9 6 11 13 15 18 SHEAR DIR 279 275 284 295 293 289 269 240 202 247 275 309 359 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 140 143 143 142 144 145 149 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 131 131 132 133 134 131 129 130 131 135 136 134 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 63 61 62 59 59 57 55 54 53 53 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -42 -48 -50 -57 -51 -47 -36 -38 -67 -68 -71 -69 200 MB DIV -10 -2 2 -2 -23 6 23 18 -2 3 22 8 44 LAND (KM) 1059 1078 1025 978 938 901 886 794 723 635 568 570 680 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.4 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 51.1 52.0 52.9 53.7 54.5 56.0 57.3 58.2 59.0 60.1 61.3 62.4 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 48 57 57 60 64 64 63 59 65 60 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/06/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY