* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL932007 10/06/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 37 43 48 52 53 55 53 49
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 37 43 48 52 53 55 53 49
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 30 32 35 38 40 40 38
SHEAR (KTS) 8 11 11 13 8 21 9 18 13 24 32 42 51
SHEAR DIR 313 300 313 321 283 297 290 297 268 278 248 257 246
SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 153 152 150 149 149 146 140 136 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 139 138 135 131 129 128 128 126 124 125 121
200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 6
700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 62 60 60 58 51 53 54 53 52 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 21 18 23 -9 -19 -23 -33 -51 -24 -21 18
200 MB DIV 29 31 29 29 51 0 0 3 17 22 64 50 83
LAND (KM) 250 261 296 345 400 450 498 503 543 614 715 738 953
LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.5 24.9 25.6 26.8 28.4 30.3 33.0
LONG(DEG W) 68.6 69.4 70.1 70.7 71.3 71.9 72.4 73.1 73.8 73.9 73.0 70.7 66.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 4 4 4 5 7 11 19 24
HEAT CONTENT 68 64 72 70 57 44 39 38 45 40 24 14 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -6.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 28. 33. 35. 36. 35. 32.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 28. 32. 33. 35. 33. 29.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932007 INVEST 10/06/07 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY