* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 10/06/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 50 62 71 78 82 83 81 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 50 62 71 67 44 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 39 48 58 37 30 28 SHEAR (KTS) 18 12 11 10 5 5 3 3 5 8 5 17 14 SHEAR DIR 10 23 1 19 9 354 343 292 296 274 282 260 262 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 155 154 154 155 155 151 146 144 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 143 140 138 139 141 141 136 129 127 125 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 8 12 10 11 9 11 10 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 71 71 73 73 75 69 69 63 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 89 85 78 76 83 99 98 93 88 74 58 34 200 MB DIV 21 39 29 15 19 20 40 33 30 23 0 13 18 LAND (KM) 203 161 126 123 122 136 194 156 79 -2 -71 -114 -108 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.3 19.9 20.3 20.4 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.1 84.6 84.9 85.1 85.3 85.6 86.1 86.7 87.4 88.0 88.5 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 4 2 2 2 4 5 5 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 97 85 79 79 79 79 82 101 90 74 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 28. 39. 47. 54. 58. 60. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 30. 42. 51. 58. 62. 63. 61. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/06/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/06/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY