* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 10/07/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 40 46 51 54 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 34 40 46 51 54 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 33 38 43 47 SHEAR (KTS) 21 24 22 15 16 18 14 7 5 4 13 17 15 SHEAR DIR 275 285 295 284 268 279 280 303 224 259 275 345 12 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 142 143 143 144 144 145 149 150 151 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 133 134 134 133 134 132 132 134 135 137 130 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 60 58 59 56 57 56 54 54 60 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -45 -53 -60 -61 -66 -65 -42 -48 -59 -74 -79 -48 200 MB DIV -3 1 -1 -7 -29 16 25 12 -1 4 15 32 34 LAND (KM) 1062 1006 954 918 891 861 791 670 581 540 521 602 822 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.9 23.3 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 53.1 53.9 54.7 55.4 56.8 58.2 59.4 60.5 61.4 62.5 63.3 63.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 59 58 59 60 64 62 59 66 70 49 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 10/07/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 2.8 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 10/07/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY