* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 10/07/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 41 52 63 71 78 81 81 79 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 41 52 63 71 78 81 81 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 39 48 57 65 70 53 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 12 9 3 4 2 5 4 7 10 12 20 SHEAR DIR 346 350 12 23 20 21 261 327 261 251 249 275 243 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 155 155 155 155 158 155 153 150 146 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 141 139 140 140 143 139 136 132 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 12 11 9 11 8 11 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 72 73 71 73 72 69 67 63 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 93 86 79 85 72 91 75 78 80 69 40 47 200 MB DIV 50 33 18 19 26 15 25 7 29 21 24 -9 10 LAND (KM) 201 162 135 143 151 180 262 209 159 101 46 10 -13 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.1 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.5 18.3 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.5 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.5 84.0 84.2 84.4 84.7 85.1 85.5 85.9 86.4 86.9 87.1 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 3 2 2 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 97 89 82 82 82 83 103 111 94 81 74 73 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 28. 38. 47. 53. 57. 57. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 32. 43. 51. 58. 61. 61. 59. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/07/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/07/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY