* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL952007 10/07/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 47 53 60 68 77 81 81 83 80 75 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 47 53 60 68 77 81 81 83 80 75 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 44 47 51 53 55 56 57 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 6 7 3 6 33 61 71 33 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 271 244 175 56 222 288 282 313 316 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.5 17.8 16.9 15.8 14.9 13.4 12.1 11.5 11.7 12.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 77 75 74 73 71 68 66 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 69 69 68 67 65 64 64 65 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.4 -56.6 -56.5 -56.1 -56.4 -57.8 -59.0 -60.9 -61.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 65 68 70 68 69 71 72 52 53 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 15 19 18 17 17 14 11 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 92 103 92 96 106 61 117 70 -22 -58 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 27 29 23 33 53 38 34 -31 -66 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1098 960 840 752 715 739 756 520 163 31 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 46.5 48.1 49.6 51.5 53.3 56.7 59.1 60.0 59.2 57.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 22.8 22.2 21.6 21.2 20.8 20.6 18.7 13.9 7.5 1.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 19 18 15 12 14 17 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 13 CX,CY: 4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. 23. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 31. 36. 43. 50. 54. 54. 54. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 28. 37. 41. 41. 43. 40. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 28. 37. 41. 41. 43. 40. 35. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL952007 INVEST 10/07/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952007 INVEST 10/07/07 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING