* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 10/07/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 43 54 64 71 76 77 76 72
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 43 54 64 54 37 31 34 30
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 27 33 39 38 30 28 34 36
SHEAR (KTS) 15 14 8 4 9 5 6 7 14 16 16 13 20
SHEAR DIR 335 354 6 333 333 348 315 293 269 259 276 256 238
SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 155 155 156 158 155 150 147 145 147 148 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 136 142 141 141 142 145 141 134 132 131 131 132 136
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 12 11 10 12 10 11 9 10 9 10 9
700-500 MB RH 79 79 76 77 75 74 72 69 70 67 66 66 67
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 97 90 87 93 93 87 90 89 76 82 73 62 70
200 MB DIV 23 30 35 39 14 37 20 28 32 37 35 31 33
LAND (KM) 192 180 178 197 221 297 190 71 -33 -71 -16 90 166
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.5 20.1
LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.3 83.6 83.9 84.1 84.7 85.6 86.6 87.6 88.9 90.2 91.3 92.3
STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 3 3 4 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 94 93 92 92 94 113 101 76 9999 9999 37 39 51
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):175/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 38. 46. 51. 52. 53. 52.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 34. 44. 51. 56. 57. 56. 52.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/07/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/07/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED