* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL942007 10/07/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 63 73 79 82 80 80 77
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 54 63 51 38 39 37 37 33
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 44 34 36 40 44 47
SHEAR (KTS) 11 8 5 7 4 6 7 11 16 15 13 16 11
SHEAR DIR 3 11 353 333 337 289 299 255 269 253 249 231 244
SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 157 159 159 152 145 146 147 152 153 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 144 145 148 147 138 131 132 133 139 140 141
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 9 12 11 9 9 11 8 11 8 10 8 11 8
700-500 MB RH 80 76 75 74 73 73 71 68 68 67 66 69 71
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 6
850 MB ENV VOR 90 85 93 93 84 93 86 82 71 73 64 77 74
200 MB DIV 32 34 37 12 25 31 18 37 30 43 37 43 47
LAND (KM) 233 231 241 276 323 223 66 -50 -22 28 169 152 63
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.1 21.1 20.9 20.4 19.8 19.1
LONG(DEG W) 82.4 82.8 83.1 83.5 83.9 85.0 86.3 87.6 89.1 90.6 92.1 93.4 94.6
STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7
HEAT CONTENT 101 102 106 111 116 113 79 9999 9999 38 47 51 49
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 25. 34. 43. 48. 53. 53. 53. 51.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 38. 48. 54. 57. 55. 55. 52.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/07/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/07/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY