* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 10/08/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 50 60 66 69 70 70 68 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 50 60 44 50 51 51 49 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 38 45 50 53 55 55 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 4 3 4 5 7 11 16 12 20 21 29 SHEAR DIR 340 339 37 53 219 288 243 271 250 275 252 257 251 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 159 159 154 148 145 145 145 148 151 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 148 147 146 139 132 129 128 128 130 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 11 11 8 10 9 11 9 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 72 74 72 66 67 60 56 55 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 98 96 90 93 98 84 76 62 45 30 18 19 24 200 MB DIV 43 24 13 34 39 9 22 -6 0 0 15 0 29 LAND (KM) 261 288 333 284 222 126 10 -9 27 58 128 215 303 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.7 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.0 83.4 84.0 84.5 85.7 86.8 87.9 89.0 90.1 91.2 92.2 93.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 105 112 116 120 119 91 77 45 34 34 42 56 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 29. 36. 41. 44. 45. 43. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 35. 41. 44. 45. 45. 43. 41. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/08/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/08/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY