* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 10/08/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 42 53 62 70 76 82 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 32 30 28 27 36 43 48 38 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 26 26 27 27 35 43 52 48 33 29 SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 4 1 4 4 1 6 7 11 17 17 16 SHEAR DIR 355 203 266 315 271 246 144 193 202 208 195 178 186 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 153 153 153 153 155 153 153 154 155 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 140 140 140 139 139 140 139 140 142 145 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 11 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 78 77 77 72 72 70 72 69 73 71 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 109 110 101 97 90 84 77 79 97 82 96 95 200 MB DIV 23 44 37 34 25 7 31 32 36 61 72 107 102 LAND (KM) 174 112 50 -9 -66 -124 -9 47 39 22 -61 -171 -114 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.5 17.9 17.4 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.6 87.1 87.7 88.2 89.5 90.7 91.7 92.8 93.8 95.0 96.3 97.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 102 110 109 92 9999 9999 25 51 54 46 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 34. 43. 51. 57. 59. 60. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 17. 28. 37. 45. 51. 57. 58. 59. 58. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/08/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/08/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY