* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942007 10/09/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 49 58 68 69 71 71 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 32 28 27 27 30 33 29 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 30 38 40 32 29 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 6 6 8 7 11 11 18 21 22 20 18 SHEAR DIR 274 277 277 254 234 268 246 246 226 237 221 189 158 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 152 153 152 152 152 152 151 153 156 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 138 138 138 138 137 135 134 137 141 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 11 10 8 10 8 10 8 9 7 9 700-500 MB RH 81 79 77 74 73 70 68 65 67 67 68 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 109 106 107 104 86 81 70 81 95 87 73 69 200 MB DIV 37 36 39 39 30 24 31 27 54 54 65 52 78 LAND (KM) 144 102 62 13 -35 -91 -107 -33 4 13 -11 -78 -89 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.1 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.7 87.0 87.5 87.9 88.8 89.7 90.4 91.0 91.4 92.0 92.8 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 105 110 112 97 9999 9999 9999 9999 33 46 59 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 36. 41. 46. 47. 47. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 3. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 16. 24. 33. 43. 44. 46. 46. 46. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL942007 INVEST 10/09/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942007 INVEST 10/09/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY